Will House Prices Drop in Malaysia? What the Published Data Can and Cannot Tell You
Will house prices drop in Malaysia? The honest answer is that nobody knows, and no official body publishes a forecast. So this page makes none. It sets out what was actually published for the first half of 2026: the house price index up 0.9% year-on-year on an average transacted price of RM506,317 (as at 30 June 2026, released by NAPIC on 10 September 2026, and preliminary); Johor up 3.6% while Selangor fell 1.1%; transaction volume down 4.5%; 33,094 completed homes unsold; and the OPR at 2.75% since 9 July 2025. Then it sets out what those figures cannot be used to conclude, and the three questions worth asking instead.
Short answer
Nobody can tell you whether Malaysian house prices will drop, because no official body publishes a forecast. The published data describes the past only: as at 30 June 2026 (NAPIC, released 10 September 2026) the house price index was up 0.9% year-on-year and down 0.5% on the quarter, averaging RM506,317; Johor rose 3.6% while Selangor fell 1.1%; transaction volume fell 4.5%; 33,094 completed homes were unsold; and the OPR has been 2.75% since 9 July 2025.
Key numbers at a glance
| House price index (Q2 2026P, preliminary) | +0.9% year-on-year, -0.5% quarter-on-quarter |
|---|---|
| Average house price, Malaysia | RM506,317 (Q1 2026: RM508,923) |
| By state (Q2 2026P) | Johor +3.6%, KL +2.7%, Penang +0.2%, Selangor -1.1% |
| Transactions (H1 2026) | 187,320, -4.5%; value RM105.12bn, -2.4% |
| Johor residential transactions | 17,871, -15.1%; completions +70.4%, starts -35.9% |
| Residential overhang | 33,094 units / RM17.78bn; +23.0% vs H1 2025, +8.6% vs end-2025 |
| Rehda take-up rate (1H 2026) | 33.2% (2H 2025: 32.2%); 181 members, Peninsular only |
| OPR | 2.75%, held 7 meetings running; next decision 5 Nov 2026 |
Key points in 30 seconds
- No Malaysian official body publishes a house price forecast, so “will prices drop” is unanswerable from published data — what it answers is what had happened by 30 June 2026.
- The house price index (Q2 2026P, preliminary) was up 0.9% year-on-year and down 0.5% on the quarter, averaging RM506,317 against RM508,923 in Q1 2026 — the report calls it “a significant deceleration” from 3.0% annual growth in Q2 2025.
- States moved in opposite directions in the same release: Johor +3.6%, Kuala Lumpur +2.7%, Pulau Pinang +0.2%, Selangor -1.1%.
- Four things are true of Johor at once: residential transactions -15.1%, prices +3.6%, completions +70.4%, starts -35.9%. This page does not resolve that into a conclusion.
- Residential overhang stood at 33,094 units worth RM17.78 billion: +23.0% against H1 2025 (NAPIC’s own base) and +8.6% against end-2025 (the base several outlets used). Both are correct.
- The OPR is 2.75%, held at seven consecutive meetings since 9 July 2025, with the next decision on 5 November 2026; Bank Negara calls the stance “consistent”, not accommodative.
Will house prices drop in Malaysia? First, who actually has an answer
Nobody does. No Malaysian official body publishes a house price forecast. NAPIC (the National Property Information Centre, part of JPPH, the Valuation and Property Services Department) publishes only what has already happened: how many transactions closed, how far the index moved, how many finished units sit unsold. Bank Negara Malaysia’s monetary policy statements discuss inflation and growth, not property prices. So “will prices drop” is a question the published data cannot answer. What it can answer is “what had happened by 30 June 2026”.
That is all this page does: set out the H1 2026 figures with their period and source attached, then say what they cannot be used to conclude. Every NAPIC figure here is as at 30 June 2026 and was released on 10 September 2026. The house price index reading is preliminary — NAPIC’s own “P” suffix — and will be revised.
| The data can tell you | The data cannot tell you |
|---|---|
| Average transacted prices nationally and by state as at 30 June 2026, and the annual change | Prices in 2027 |
| How many transactions closed in H1 2026 and how that compares with a year earlier | The resale price of your own block next year |
| How many completed units are unsold (overhang), in which price bands, and for how long | Vacancy rates — NAPIC publishes no residential vacancy rate |
| The OPR today, when it last moved, and the next decision date | Whether the next decision is a cut |
| What developers report about their own sales (the Rehda member survey) | A national loan-rejection rate — no such figure is published |
What does the latest Malaysian House Price Index actually say?
The latest published Malaysian House Price Index (MHPI / Indeks Harga Rumah Malaysia) reading is for Q2 2026, preliminary. Three things matter.
- Up 0.9% year-on-year. The report’s own description of that: “a significant deceleration from the 3.0% annual growth … recorded in Q2 2025”.
- Down 0.5% quarter-on-quarter — a fall against Q1 2026. One quarter is not a trend, but it did happen.
- Average house price in Malaysia: RM506,317 per unit, down from RM508,923 in Q1 2026. That is the index series average, not the price in your area.
By house type: semi-detached is flat at 0.0%, not falling
| Type | Annual change | Average price |
|---|---|---|
| Terraced | +1.1% | RM491,820 |
| High-rise | +0.9% | RM383,864 |
| Semi-detached | 0.0% | RM764,694 |
| Detached | +1.1% | RM691,449 |
None of the four is negative. Semi-detached recorded 0.0% — flat, not down. That segment is often described as the one falling hardest; the published figure does not say that.
Do not read serviced apartments from this index. NAPIC publishes a separate Serviced Apartment Price Index (SAPI / IHPK), so a serviced-apartment price trend should be read from that series rather than from the house price index. That matters most in Johor Bahru, where serviced apartments are the dominant high-rise product in Iskandar Puteri and around Danga Bay. For the area-selection method, see how to choose an area with published data.
Three common errors all come from treating two different figures as one. Reading the press’s +8.6% and NAPIC’s +23.0% as a contradiction, when one measures against a year earlier and the other against end-2025. Subtracting Rehda’s 33.2% take-up from NAPIC’s 16.6% sales performance rate and concluding the market collapsed, when the two cover different populations. And treating 30% as a loan-rejection rate, when it is the share of developers with unsold stock who named buyer financing as their top reason — no rejection rate is published at all. Any one of these can push you into waiting a year you did not need to, or into a booking fee you were not ready for. For the financing side, read DSR, CCRIS, CTOS and loan rejection.
Ask Louis directly
Tell me the area and the product type you are looking at – landed residential or serviced apartment – and I will pull the published figures for it into one table, every row dated and sourced, with no forecast in it.
I will put together a free one-page table of the published figures for your own area: the relevant price index and average transacted price, NAPIC's unsold-stock figures by product type and price band, and the current count of rental and resale listings in the specific blocks you name, each row carrying its period and source.
Johor, Kuala Lumpur and Selangor: same release, opposite directions
There is no single national answer to “are prices falling”, because within the same release the states move in different directions.
| State | Annual change | Average price |
|---|---|---|
| Johor | +3.6% | RM489,881 |
| Kuala Lumpur | +2.7% | RM825,282 |
| Pulau Pinang | +0.2% | RM503,388 |
| Selangor | -1.1% | RM561,187 |
| Malaysia | +0.9% | RM506,317 |
- Johor rose 3.6%, four times the national 0.9%. For a Johor Bahru buyer that is the single most relevant line in the release.
- Selangor fell 1.1%. So “Malaysian house prices are falling” is true in Selangor and false in Johor, in the same quarter.
- Kuala Lumpur rose 2.7% on an average price of RM825,282 — about 1.7 times Johor’s average. Which of the two to buy in is a separate question: see choosing an area in Johor Bahru or KL, and the published price ranges on this site as a starting point.
Transaction volume: down 4.5% nationally, down 15.1% for Johor homes
Price and volume are two different things, and in H1 2026 they moved in different directions.
Malaysia, all property types
- 187,320 transactions worth RM105.12 billion.
- Volume down 4.5% year-on-year (H1 2025: 196,232 transactions); value down 2.4% (H1 2025: RM107.68 billion).
- The residential sub-sector: 110,998 transactions, 59.3% of all volume, worth RM47.11 billion, 44.8% of total value.
Johor: four things are true at once
| Measure | H1 2026 | Year-on-year |
|---|---|---|
| All-sector transaction volume | 28,238 | -11.5% |
| All-sector transaction value | RM23,426.68 million | +8.2% |
| Residential transaction volume | 17,871 | -15.1% (H1 2025: 21,061) |
| Residential transaction value | RM9,096.58 million | -7.7% (H1 2025: RM9,855.60 million) |
| Residential completions | 7,474 units | +70.4% (H1 2025: 4,385) |
| Residential starts | 3,954 units | -35.9% (H1 2025: 6,173) |
| New planned supply | 5,065 units | — |
Read with the previous section, Johor looks like this: fewer sales (residential volume -15.1%), higher prices (+3.6%), a wave of completions landing (+70.4%), and more than a third fewer starts (-35.9%). All four come from the same set of reports released on 10 September 2026.
Unsold stock: two published growth rates, answering two different questions
As at 30 June 2026, national residential overhang — completed, unsold stock — stood at 33,094 units worth RM17.78 billion. It is the most quoted figure in the release, and its “growth rate” appears in the press in two versions. Both are arithmetically correct, because they use different bases.
| Base of comparison | Published change | The question it answers |
|---|---|---|
| 30 June 2025 — the base NAPIC’s own report uses (26,911 units / RM16.44 billion) | Volume +23.0%, value +8.2% | How much the stock grew over a full year |
| End-2025 — the base several outlets use (30,471 units / RM17.73 billion) | +8.6% (33,094 ÷ 30,471 = 1.086) | How much it grew in the six months of H1 2026 |
NAPIC’s own sentence: “This represents a year-on-year growth of 23.0% in volume and 8.2% in value against the corresponding period in 2025 (H1 2025: 26,911 units; RM16.44 billion).” The press headline ran “unsold completed homes climb 8.6 per cent in H1 2026”. Neither number is wrong. What is wrong is treating them as two answers to one question. For a year-on-year comparison use 23.0%; for the half-year use 8.6%.
Serviced apartments are counted in a separate book
- Unsold completed serviced apartments: 23,375 units worth RM16.28 billion, up 30.7% in volume and 12.8% in value year-on-year (H1 2025: 17,883 units, RM14.43 billion).
- They are not inside the 33,094. Serviced apartments sit in the commercial sub-sector, not residential. If you want a combined figure, write “33,094 homes plus 23,375 serviced apartments” and never present a single summed number as NAPIC’s.
- Johor’s residential overhang is 4,222 units — the highest of any state, 12.8% of the national total. In the same release, Johor also had the fastest price growth of the major states (+3.6%). Both are true; an article that prints only one of them is misleading you.
The definition, the three NAPIC categories, the two nine-month clocks and how to look up your own district are covered on the companion overhang page; to read state overhang alongside state prices, see choosing an area from published data.
Want to see what you can actually buy?
The rules are above; these are the actual homes. Each page lists the projects I am tracking, with published price ranges and the date each figure was checked. Tell me the area on WhatsApp and I will send the current list.
The interest rate side: OPR at 2.75%, held seven meetings running
- Overnight Policy Rate (OPR): 2.75%, maintained at the Monetary Policy Committee meeting of 3 September 2026.
- The last change was on 9 July 2025, a cut of 0.25 points from 3.00% to 2.75%.
- Since that cut it has been held at seven consecutive meetings: 4 September and 6 November 2025, then 22 January, 5 March, 7 May, 9 July and 3 September 2026.
- The next decision is 5 November 2026 (Thursday), per Bank Negara’s own published Next Decision Date.
From the Monetary Policy Statement of 3 September 2026, in Bank Negara’s own words: headline and core inflation averaged 1.8% and 2% respectively in the first seven months of the year; the economy “expanded robustly by 5.7% in the first half of 2026” with full-year growth expected “around 5%”; and at the current level the stance is “consistent with the outlook of continued price stability and sustainable economic growth”.
What actually matters to you is not the direction of rates but whether your cash flow survives a move. How OPR, SBR and BR feed through to your instalment is in OPR, SBR, BR and BLR explained; what you can service is in what house price your salary affords and DSR, CCRIS, CTOS and loan rejection.
The developer side: the Rehda survey, and two percentages you cannot subtract
Rehda, the Real Estate and Housing Developers’ Association Malaysia, surveys its members every half year. The 1H 2026 edition was released on 23 September 2026, reporting the position as at 30 June 2026, with fieldwork in July and August.
- Take-up rate 33.2%, up from 32.2% in 2H 2025.
- 15,834 units launched in 1H 2026 (2H 2025: 15,841) and 5,260 sold (2H 2025: 5,098, +3.2%).
- 59% of respondents reported unsold stock as at 30 June 2026.
- Of the unsold completed stock reported, 32% had been unsold for more than three years.
- 81% reported higher overall business costs, 63% faced construction-related challenges, and construction costs rose an average of 13% between March and June 2026.
- Rehda President Datuk Zaini Yusoff: “Performance remained mixed across property types, indicating that the market continues to remain soft.”
33.2% and 16.6% are not the same measure — do not subtract them
These two percentages get placed side by side and subtracted, and the result is reported as take-up collapsing by half. That is wrong.
| Figure | What it measures | Source and scope |
|---|---|---|
| 33.2% | Take-up rate reported by developers on their own launches | Rehda 1H 2026 survey, 181 members, Peninsular Malaysia only (secondary) |
| 16.6% | Sales performance rate of the 27,832 new residential units launched nationally in H1 2026 | NAPIC, as reported by Bernama (secondary) |
Different populations, different basis of measurement. They are not comparable and cannot be subtracted. Where you see the two differenced to show a collapse in take-up, two separate metrics have been merged.
Three better questions than "will prices rise"
“Is now a bad time to buy” only becomes a usable question once you know how long you intend to hold, how much of a rate move you can absorb, and how much competing stock sits in your own area and product type. All three do have answers, and they are yours, not the market’s.
- How many years will you hold? Write the number downProperty carries heavy one-off costs at both ends: stamp duty and legal fees going in, RPGT and agent fees coming out. The shorter the hold, the heavier those costs weigh per year. Put a number of years on paper, then test it against the costs in what buying actually costs and selling and RPGT, or run it through the buying-costs calculator.
- If rates move one percentage point, does your cash flow still work?The OPR has been 2.75% since 9 July 2025 and held at seven consecutive meetings, with the next decision on 5 November 2026. Do not assume it stays put. Recalculate your instalment with the floating rate one point higher and see what buffer is left. The mechanics are in OPR, SBR, BR and BLR explained.
- How much competing stock is in your own area and product type?33,094 nationally tells you nothing about your purchase. You need the figure for your district and your product type. NAPIC’s free Data Visualisation portal carries district-level and district-by-price-range tables – the /en/ in that URL is required – and the step-by-step is on the companion overhang page.
- And one more: have you checked actual transacted prices in those blocks?An index average is a state-level number, not your block’s. How to find real transacted records, and how bank valuation works, is in property valuation and transacted prices.
- If any of the three answers is "I don't know", don't pay the booking fee yetGetting out after booking depends on the developer’s own terms, not on your change of mind — see cancelling a booking and SPA default. If the honest answer is that you are not ready, the comparison you want is rent or buy in Malaysia.
When these figures go stale
- Every NAPIC figure here: as at 30 June 2026, released 10 September 2026.
- The house price index reading is preliminary (NAPIC’s “P”) and will be revised. The previous quarter’s publication table was itself reposted as an “_Edit” file.
- The OPR paragraph expires on 5 November 2026, the next MPC decision date.
- When NAPIC’s next release lands, I cannot tell you. NAPIC publishes no release calendar I could verify. What is observable: the H1 2026 suite came out on 10 September 2026, and at the time of this check the publication index showed nothing for Q3 2026 or H2 2026, with its own “last updated” reading 02/10/2026. So instead of a date, here is the publication index — check it yourself.
- Rehda’s next edition (2H 2026) has no announced release date either. For reference, the 2H 2025 edition was reported in March 2026, which suggests a March-ish cadence.
Related questions
What is the average house price in Malaysia?
NAPIC’s house price index for Q2 2026 (preliminary, as at 30 June 2026) puts the average at RM506,317 per unit, down from RM508,923 in Q1 2026. By state: Johor RM489,881, Kuala Lumpur RM825,282, Pulau Pinang RM503,388, Selangor RM561,187. By type: terraced RM491,820, high-rise RM383,864, semi-detached RM764,694, detached RM691,449. These are state-level averages, not your area’s price — for actual transacted records in a specific block, see property valuation and transacted prices.
What is the base year of the Malaysian House Price Index?
It is not published. I checked NAPIC’s report PDF, its publication table and its own web pages, and found no statement of the base year. That matters: an index level is unreadable without one. So this site publishes only the percentage change and the average transacted price, and never the index level. If you see someone argue a state is expensive because “its index is over 300 points”, that is a comparison of levels with no common base — each state’s series has its own starting point.
Can I read serviced apartment prices from the house price index?
Better not to. NAPIC publishes a separate Serviced Apartment Price Index (SAPI / IHPK), so serviced apartments should be read from that series. Whether the house price index explicitly excludes them I could not confirm — the report’s coverage statement was not retrievable, so I will not assert it. This matters in Johor Bahru, where serviced apartments dominate the high-rise stock in Iskandar Puteri and around Danga Bay, and where unsold completed serviced apartments are counted in a separate book: 23,375 units nationally.
Johor completions jumped 70% — does that push resale prices down?
The published figures are: Johor residential completions of 7,474 units in H1 2026, up 70.4% year-on-year, against only 3,954 starts, down 35.9%. More completions means more stock competing for your buyers and tenants over the next year or two; fewer starts means thinner new supply two or three years out. Those forces pull opposite ways, NAPIC does not say which is stronger, and I will not say it for them. In practice, count the live rental and resale listings in your own block and how long they have sat. For the rental side, see how to calculate rental yield.
Frequently asked questions
Did house prices fall in Malaysia in 2026?
Not nationally, on the published figures. The MHPI for Q2 2026 (preliminary) was up 0.9% year-on-year, with an average price of RM506,317 — but down 0.5% quarter-on-quarter from RM508,923 in Q1 2026. States moved in different directions: Johor +3.6%, Kuala Lumpur +2.7%, Pulau Pinang +0.2%, and Selangor -1.1%. So the answer depends on which state, which product type and which period you mean. All figures are as at 30 June 2026, released 10 September 2026.
Is now a bad time to buy property in Malaysia?
Nobody can answer that, because no official body publishes a price forecast and I don’t make one either. What the data shows is the position: transaction volume down 4.5% year-on-year, Johor residential transactions down 15.1%, 33,094 completed homes unsold nationally, and the OPR at 2.75% since 9 July 2025. Whether the timing works depends on how long you will hold, whether you can service the loan if rates rise a point, and how much competing stock sits in your own area. Those three you can answer.
Why are Johor prices rising while Selangor is falling?
The published figures for Q2 2026 (preliminary) are: Johor up 3.6% with an average price of RM489,881; Selangor down 1.1% at RM561,187; Malaysia up 0.9%. NAPIC gives no explanation, and I won’t invent one. What is worth holding alongside it: Johor also has the largest residential overhang of any state (4,222 units, 12.8% of the national total) and its residential transaction volume fell 15.1% year-on-year. Rising prices and the biggest overhang are both true at once.
The press says overhang rose 8.6% but NAPIC says 23% — which is right?
Both, from different bases. National residential overhang was 33,094 units worth RM17.78 billion as at 30 June 2026. NAPIC’s report compares that with a year earlier (H1 2025: 26,911 units, RM16.44 billion), giving +23.0% in volume and +8.2% in value. Several outlets compare it with the end-2025 position of 30,471 units: 33,094 ÷ 30,471 = +8.6%. Use 23.0% for a year, 8.6% for the half year. Separately, Bernama labels the 30,471 figure “H1 2025”, and that label is an error.
Does falling transaction volume mean prices are about to fall?
The published data does not support that step. National volume fell 4.5% year-on-year in H1 2026 and Johor residential volume fell 15.1%, while Johor’s price index rose 3.6% over the same period — lower volume and higher prices together. Johor also shows two forces pointing opposite ways: residential completions up 70.4%, which adds competing stock over the next year or two, and starts down 35.9%, which thins new supply two or three years out. NAPIC draws no conclusion from this, and neither will I.
Will Bank Negara cut the OPR again?
I don’t forecast it, and Bank Negara has given no guidance. What is certain: the OPR is 2.75%, cut from 3.00% on 9 July 2025 and held at seven consecutive meetings since, most recently 3 September 2026, with the next decision on 5 November 2026. The 3 September statement says the current level is “consistent with the outlook of continued price stability and sustainable economic growth” — consistent, not a signal of a move. For budgeting, stress-test your instalment one percentage point higher.
Where can I look these figures up myself?
All free, no registration. Prices: NAPIC’s Malaysian House Price Index (the PDF cover reads Q1–Q2 2026P). Transactions and unsold stock: the Property Market Report H1 2026 (over 30 MB) and the Property Market Status Report H1 2026. Johor: the Southern Region Property Market Report H1 2026. The four-page press release is the best starting point for a non-specialist. Everything sits in NAPIC’s Latest Publication index, and district-level figures are in the free Data Visualisation portal. For the OPR, use Bank Negara’s OPR decisions table.
Sources & verification
- NAPIC / JPPH — Malaysian House Price Index Q1–Q2 2026P (PDF, cover title; the publication index lists it as H1 2026)
- NAPIC / JPPH — Press Release, Property Market Report H1 2026, 10 September 2026 (PDF, 4 pages)
- NAPIC / JPPH — Property Market Status Report H1 2026 (the overhang report, PDF)
- NAPIC / JPPH — Southern Region Property Market Report H1 2026 (the Johor report, PDF)
- NAPIC / JPPH — Property Market Report H1 2026 (PDF, over 30 MB)
- NAPIC / JPPH — Latest Publication index
- NAPIC / JPPH — Data Visualisation portal, Property Status category
- Bank Negara Malaysia — OPR decisions table
- Bank Negara Malaysia — Monetary Policy Statement, 3 September 2026
- Bank Negara Malaysia — Monetary stability (next MPC decision date)
- Bernama, 10 September 2026 — NAPIC H1 2026 launch report
- The Edge Malaysia, 10 September 2026 — H1 2026 transactions
- The Edge Malaysia, 14 September 2026 — unsold completed homes H1 2026
- Malay Mail, 23 September 2026 — Rehda Property Industry Survey 1H 2026
- The Star, 24 September 2026 — Rehda survey, 1H 2027 outlook
- The Edge Malaysia, 23 September 2026 — Rehda survey
Verified: 2026-09-20. This guide is general information, not legal, tax or financial advice. Rules and rates change — confirm in writing with your lawyer, bank or the relevant authority before you sign.
More in this stage
Louis Koh
11 years in Malaysian property · Johor Bahru & Kuala Lumpur · English & 中文
I help local buyers and cross-border buyers from Singapore with new and subsale property. Every figure in these guides is sourced; when a rule changes, I update the page and date it.
Stuck on this step? Ask me directly
Send me your situation — new or subsale, budget, state, and where you are in the process — and I will tell you what to do next and what to watch for.
I will put together a free one-page table of the published figures for your own area: the relevant price index and average transacted price, NAPIC's unsold-stock figures by product type and price band, and the current count of rental and resale listings in the specific blocks you name, each row carrying its period and source.
Louis Koh · 11 years in Malaysian property · +60 10-906 6685 · replies 9am–10pm MYT